우리나라 가계부채는 2000∼2007년간 연평균 13.3% 증가하여 2007년말 현재 명목GDP의 87.6%까지 확대되었고 이는 OECD 평균인 64.4%보다 훨씬 높은 수준이다. 이에 따라 가계부채는 미국발 금융위기의 여파로 국내 금융부문의 취약성이 노정되고 실물경기마저 크게 둔화되고 있는 상황에서 거시경제 불안의 또 다른 뇌관으로 작용할 가능성이 커지고 있다.

본고는 가계부채와 관련하여 최신의 한국노동패널자료(2000∼2007년)를 이용하여 작성한 세 편의 보고서를 종합한 것이다. 제1편에서는 2007년까지 가계의 재무건전성 지표 추이를 살펴보았고 제2편에서는 최근의 거시환경 변화에 대한 가계채무부담의 민감도를 분석하였다. 제3편에서는 가계부채 및 부채상환부담이 소비에 미치는 영향을 살펴보았다. 각각의 보고서를 요약하면 다음과 같다.

먼저 가계중 부채가 있는 부채가구의 재무건전성 지표 추이를 분석해 본 결과 자산이 많은 상위소득계층이 부채도 많이 보유하고 있기 때문에 부채가구의 재무건전성은 2007년까지 평균적으로 양호한 것으로 보인다. 그런데 소득 및 자산대비 부채수준이 높고 가계수지도 적자인 취약가구를 기준으로 재무건전성을 평가해 보면, 총자산 기준으로는 취약가구가 보유한 부채 비중이 그간의 부동산가격 상승에 힘입어 감소하였으나 금융자산 기준으로는 크게 증가하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한결과는 우리나라 부채가구의 재무건전성이 부동산가격 하락 위험에 크게 노출되어 있음을 시사한다.

최근 들어 미국발 금융위기 여파로 신용경색, 부동산가격 하락, 경기둔화 등 가계채무부담 능력에 부정적인 거시환경이 조성되고 있다. 이에따라 가계채무부담 능력에 영향을 미치는 요인별로 부채상환이 곤란한 취약가구의 비중이 2007년에 비해 어떻게 변화할 지 그 민감도를 분석하였다. 분석 결과 부동산가격 하락, 원금상환 부담 증가, 소득 감소 순으로 취약가구의 비중 확대에 부정적인 영향이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 가구자료 및 거시총량지표를 이용하여 소비함수를 추정하였는데 소비에 대한 부채의 총효과는 신용카드 사태 이후 음(—)으로 전환되었으며 동 효과가 점차 확대되고 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 특히 소득수준별 소비함수 추정 결과 중간소득계층이 부채상환부담에 민감하게 반응하는 한편 금융자산 보유 비중이 낮을수록 부채상환부담에 따른 소비억제 효과는 커지는 것으로 나타났다.

따라서 가계부채가 소비위축을 비롯한 거시경제에 큰 부담이 되지 않도록 하기 위해서는 부동산가격의 경착륙 방지, 가계대출의 원활한 만기연장, 실질소득 감소 완화를 위한 경기부양 노력 등 다각적인 대책 마련이 필요해 보인다.

한편 이상의 분석 결과를 참조함에 있어 다음과 같은 점에 유의할 필요가 있다. 첫째, 분석에 이용된 제10차 한국노동패널자료는 잠정통계이기 때문에 추후 확정 발표될 통계를 이용할 경우 분석 결과는 다소 달라질 수 있다. 둘째, 한국노동패널자료는 통계청의 유사한 통계자료보다 가계의 금융자산 규모가 체계적으로 작다는 특징이 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서 분석한 금융자산 대비 가계부채 부담은 다소 과대평가될 가능성이 있으므로 해석에 유의할 필요가 있다.

제1편 가계의 재무건전성 추이 분석 : 김현정, 김우영
I. 분석 배경 ··································································································2
II. 2007년 가계부채 현황 ············································································3
Ⅲ. 부채가구의 재무건전성 지표 추이 ···················································6
1. 부채가구의 소득, 부채 및 자산 추이·························································6
2. 부채가구의 소득 대비 부채 비율(DTI) 추이············································8
3. 부채가구의 자산 대비 부채 비율(DTA) 추이········································ 10
4. 취약가구의 재무건전성 지표 추이····························································14
Ⅳ. 요약 및 시사점 ·····················································································16
<부록> 총량지표로 본 가계부채 현황 ······························································21
제2편 거시환경 변화에 따른 가계채무부담 능력의 민감도
분석 : 김현정, 김우영
Ⅰ. 분석 배경 ·······························································································24
Ⅱ. 요인별 민감도 분석 ············································································ 25
1. 금리 하락········································································································27
2. 부동산 가격 하락··························································································28
3. 소득 감소 ······································································································29
4. 원금상환 부담 증가 ····················································································30
Ⅲ. 결론 및 시사점 ·····················································································33
<부록> 복합요인에 대한 민감도 분석································································36
제3편 가계부채가 소비에 미치는 영향 : 김현정, 김우영, 김기호
Ⅰ. 분석 배경 ·······························································································42
Ⅱ. 기존 연구 검토 ·····················································································43
Ⅲ. 가계부채 및 소비 현황 ······································································ 45
Ⅳ. 노동패널자료를 이용한 분석 ··························································48
Ⅴ. 요약 및 시사점 ·····················································································54
<부록 1> 소득구간별 재무현황(2007년) ·····························································56
<부록 2> 소득분위별 소비함수 추정 결과(2007년) ········································· 57
<참고문헌> ···········································································································58