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[Vol.27 No.1] Estimation of the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 on Poverty in ASEAN Countries

Economic Research Institute (82-2-759-5490 ) 2021.03.31 920

Authour: Hokyung Bang(Korea Development Institute), Eunjeong Yang(Korea Development Institute)


This paper examines the potential impacts of COVID-19 on poverty in ASEAN countries. The first estimate, adopted from Summer et al. (2020) and Nonvide (2020), configures three scenarios of contractions in per capita household income or consumption; the impact of each scenario on poverty is calculated using poverty lines at different thresholds. In the second estimate, poverty impacts in 2020 and 2021 were projected using regression models controlling for unobserved country effects, unbalanced data, and endogeneity. COVID-19 has been shown to have negative impacts on poverty reduction in the ASEAN Member States. To reduce poverty, concerted efforts are needed to implement policies for reducing income inequality and promoting economic growth. Such efforts will not only speed up the countries’ return to pre-pandemic poverty levels but also contribute to further accelerating poverty reduction.

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