Title : North Korea's declining fertility rate seen through a survey of North Korean defectors and its implications for inter-Korean population integration

Author : Jooyung Lee(Bank of Korea), Sunjung Kim(Bank of Korea)

To calculate the total fertility rate in North Korea, this paper surveyed 95 North Korean defectors to investigate their 1137 relatives’ and acquaintances’ marriage and fertility experiences. The results show that North Korea's total fertility rate was 1.91 in the 1990s, then dropped to 1.59 in the 2000s, and was at 1.38 in the 2010s. The 1.38 fertility rate in the 2010s not only confirms the downward trend in the fertility rate previously estimated by the UN, but is also consistent with North Korean defectors' testimonies that most women born in 1970s and 1980s are only giving birth to one child. The reasons for the decline in the total fertility rate include the increase in late marriage among women in urban areas and the decline in fertility due to women's increased participation in market activity.

The downward trend in North Korea's total fertility rate has important implications for inter-Korean population integration. The decline in the total fertility rate following the “Arduous March of the 1990s is likely to lead to a decline in North Korea's working-age population and total population between 2021 and 2030. Even if the populations of North and South Korea are integrated in 2030, it is difficult to expect a large population bonus due to weak improvement in age structure. 

This study has some limitations in terms of methodology, and it is necessary to expand the sample to residents of other parts of North Korea than North Korea-China border region so that in future studies the sample can better reflect the population.