Title : Economic and Non-economic Determinants of the Lowest-Low Fertility Rate in Korea: An Analysis of Survey Experiments

Author : Yunmi Nam(Bank of Korea), In Do Hwang(Bank of Korea)

In this paper, we conduct a survey of 2,000 adults aged 25-39 nationwide (1,000 unmarried individuals with no children and 1,000 childless married individuals) and analyze the economic and non-economic factors contributing to the low fertility rate in South Korea. First, through a randomized controlled trial, we found that the burden of housing costs significantly reduces one’s intention to marry and have children, while the effects of education and medical expenses were not confirmed. In addition, through descriptive statistics and a regression analysis, we found that employment stability and values have a significant effect on one’s intention to marry and on one’s desired number of children. For employed individuals, regular employees, public sector workers, and government officials, there was a higher intention to marry, indicating that employment stability reduces the threshold for marriage. However, for women, being employed was associated with a significantly lower desired number of children, implying the existence of challenges in balancing work and childcare. Values also had a significant impact on marriage and on the desired number of children. Specifically, the acceptance of patriarchal values, such as the necessity of having a son, was associated with a higher intention to marry, a higher intention to have children, and a greater desired number of children. On the other hand, feeling obligated to provide financial support for children was associated with a lower intention to marry or to have children. The influence of values was found to be stronger for women than for men.