Thursday, December 10, 2015

• 19:00 - 21:00
  Welcome Reception / Dinner[Garnet Suite, 37F, Lotte Hotel Seoul]
• Moderator
  Kyung Soo Kim (Professor, Sungkyunkwan University)
• Speakers
  Linda Goldberg (Senior Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York) Yanliang Miao (Head of Research, SAFE Investment Center, China) Kyunghun Kim (Research Fellow, KIEP) Francis Warnock (Professor, University of Virginia)

Friday, December 11, 2015

• 08:00 - 08:20
  Registration and Coffee
• 08:20 - 08:40
  Opening Session Opening Remark Juyeol Lee(Governor, Bank of Korea) Welcome Remark Hyunghwan Joo(Vice Minister, Ministry of Strategy and finance)
• 08:40 - 09:10
  Keynote Speech Siddharth Tiwari(Director, Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, IMF)
• 09:15 - 10:45
  [Session 1] Where Does Asia Stand in the current Leverage Cycle? This session looks into the Asian economy through the lens of leverage. Bank credit provisions or debt issuance diverging from economic fundamentals such as savings are prone to undermine financial soundness. The leverage cycle will have a multifaceted nature which depends on the source of the expanded credit(financial loosening by central banks or financial intermediaries) and its use(spending by household, corporate firms, or governments). Related shifts in the Asian financial landscape can entail increases in cross-border balance sheet integration and offshore dollar credit
• Moderator
  Joon-Ho Hahm (MPB Member, BOK)
• Speakers
  Ding DingSenior Economist, Asia and Pacific Department, IMF
  Leverage in Asia: Stylized Facts and New Risks Giovanni Dell’Ariccia Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF
  Identifying Excessive Credit Growth and Leverage:
  Historical Experience and Application to Asia
  Discussants
  Patrick McGuire Head of the International Data Hub, Monetary and Economic Department, BIS Giovanni Dell’AricciaDeputy Director, Research Department, IMF
  Identifying Excessive Credit Growth and Leverage:
  Historical Experience and Application to Asia Piti Disyatat Executive Director, Bank of Thailand Jong Ku Kang Head and Principle Economist, Economic Research Institute, BOK
• 10:45 - 11:00
  Coffee Break
  11:00 - 12:30
  [Session 2] What New Risks Are Looming? Integral to coping with new risks is diagnosing potential risks on the financial front—for example, excesses in shadow banking and credit, currency and maturity mismatches, and possible sudden stops in capital flows to economies with fragility. A rising concern pertains to the manifestation of G2 risk on leverage and default-risk premium for emerging-market economies via, for example, heightened exchange rate volatility and contraction in trade. Repercussions from the divergent monetary policies of major central banks may unfold uneven terrain for emerging-market economies. Given that asset prices are associated with the leverage cycle, this session introduces disaggregated data analysis on the effects of macro-prudential measures on house prices and housing-market transactions.
• Moderator
  Woon Gyu Choi (Deputy Governor and Director General, Economic Research Institute, BOK)
  Speakers
  Alfred Schipke Senior Resident Representative, Asia and pacific Department, IMF
  How Worried Should We Beabout Asia’s Shadow Banking? Jieun LeeEconomist, Economic Research Institute, BOK
  The Effects of Macro-prudential Policies on House Prices Using Real Transaction Data: Evidence from Korea
  Discussants
  Yiping Huang (Professor, Peking university) Dongchul Cho (Chief Economist, Korea Development Institute)
• 12:40 - 14:10
  Luncheon [Belle-Vue Suite, 36F, Lotte Hotel Seoul
  Luncheon Address Hyun Song Shin (Economic Adviser and Head of Research, BIS)
• 14:30 - 16:00
  [Session 3] Potential Roles for Policy This session seeks preemptive and proactive roles for monetary and macro-prudential policies. Designing policy responses in a new scope may involve managing capital flows in the face of divergent monetary policies in major countries, dealing with debt overhangs in the wake of global interest rate normalization, and adopting different policy prescriptions to different types of debt. Policymakers may want to check if they have sufficient policy space and access to other sources of resort.

  Moderator
  Kalpana Kochhar (Deputy Director, Asia and Pacific Department, IMF)
  Speakers
  Varapat Chensavasdijai Senior Resident Representative, Asia and pacific Department, IMF
  Managing Capital Flows: Some Considerations Based on the Fund’s Institutional View Hoe Jeong KimDirector General, International Financial Cooperation Bureau, MOSF
  Corporate Foreign Debt and Policy Responses in EMEs
  Discussants
  Kwanho Shin (Professor, Korea University) Brahima Coulibaly (Chief, Division of International Finance, Federal Reserve Board)
• 16:00 - 16:15
  Coffee Break
• 16:15 - 17:45
  [Session 4] Panel Discussion- What Can Be the Next Black Swan and What Can We Do about It? Against the backdrop of the previous sessions, the panel discussion could assess G2 risks and associated tail risks to procure broad policy options for making Asia immune to fall outs from the leverage cycle. Can the next black swan emerge from vulnerability to the confluence of dollar credit shocks and heightened illiquidity in financial and commodity markets following global interest rate normalization? Policymakers will also try to fend off the next black swan through enhancing their policy coordination and financial safety nets of regional / global scope, as well as deploying preemptive policy strikes.
  Moderator
  Hyun Song Shin (Economic Adviser and Head of Research, BIS)
  Panelists
  Il Houng Lee (President, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) Kalpana Kochhar (Deputy Director, Asia and Pacific Department, IMF) Timothy Lane (Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada)
• 18:30 - 20:30
  Farewell Dinner [Belle-Vue Suite, 36F, Lotte Hotel]
  * Invitees Only Dinner SpeechBarry Sterland(Executive Director, IMF)