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Economic Papers Vol.5 No.1(3)

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연구조정실 (Monetary Studies Team(tel : 82-2-759-5407, fax:82-2-759-5410) ) 2002.08.23 8285
TITLE : [Economic Papers 5-1] A Structural Decomposition Analysis of Imports of Korea AUTHOR : Byung-Do Cho CONTACT : Institute for Monetary & Economic Research (tel: 82-2-759-5407, fax: 82-2-759-5410) ATTACH : EP5-1-7(1).pdf EP5-1-7(2).pdf Summary: This study analyzes the factors contributing to the increase in imports of intermediate and final goods as well as total imports during 1975∼95 by using a new model rather than Kubo, which has been previously used for analysis of increase in imports. Its result give the following contribution ratios to total imports : investment(40.1%), imports(28.8%), consumption (27.1%), import substitution(2.2%) and technological change (1.8%). That investment was the largest contributor to the increase in total imports clearly shows its higher dependence on imports and the sharp increase in investment during the period of 1975∼95. Exports were also one of the major factors in the increase of imports due to their large expansion during the period and their high import inducement effects. The lower ratio of consumption compared to investment or exports was attributable to this component´s lower dependence on imports of intermediate and final goods than that of investment or exports. During 1975∼95, dependence of imports and production inducement coefficients both rose slightly, and this served as a factor in the increase of imports. On the Basis of these findings, it is considered that in order to improve the current account position in import terms, first raw materials as well as parts for machinery, steel, textiles and chemicals (either as major export items or investment goods, these have higher import inducement effects) should be localized. Second, a capital goods industry should be fostered to replace imported machinery with domestically manufactured machinery. Third, energy related imports, including crude oil, should be reduced by converting Korea´s economic structure to a more energy-efficient pattern. Fourth, efforts to develop high value added products should be made through investment in R&D and informatization.

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